Are we following an economic trend?

The government acceptedpackagemeasures that have already caused a great deal of discussion. RÚZ, KOZSR and even economists are dissatisfied. In fact, there was also a reflection with the title:Recession cannot be ruled out, NBS warns. The economy is facing a new wave of uncertainty.Did the NBS come up with it only now?

I will also quote this:

„We haven't learned from the crisis: Slovakia's debt is climbing to a historic high, breaking even the pandemic record.According to estimates by the Council for Budget Responsibility (RRZ), Slovakia's gross public debt should rise to 61.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2025, surpassing the historical maximum from the pandemic year 2021. Even additional consolidation efforts in the form of meeting the government's targeted lower budget deficits will not ensure debt stabilization in the coming years. RRZ analysts pointed this out in the current blog.“

And what was RRZ doing??

In order for the reader to be able to compare the quotes and how China approached economic problems, I will also include a quote from a scientific article:China's grand strategy in the megatrends of the 21st century. This quote is from him in English and I also translated it into Slovak below:

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“China’s grand strategy within 21st-century megatrends, byZoltan Bartha. The main aim of this study is to identify possible components of China’s grand strategy and check how they can influence global megatrends. Based on a literature review, four grand strategy components are identified: 1) building up military power, 2) consolidating power at the peripheries and pushing for more control over disputed territories, 3) expanding economic influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, and 4) establishing new standards in digital technologies and promoting cyber sovereignty. These strategic tools can directly affect the following megatrends that are commonly mentioned in the literature: shift of economic power, emerging markets, new economic order; digitalisation; globalisation; deglobalization, trade reduction; diversity of governance, trust in the political system; and scarce resources. Using data taken from Google Trends it is shown that in the 2004-2023 period the trends of Chinese grand strategy terms correlate most with terms that represent the following three megatrends: digitalisation, globalisation, and scarce resources”

The main objective of this study isto identifypossible components of China's grand strategy and examine how they caninfluenceglobal megatrends.

Based on the literature review, four components of grand strategy are identified:

1. building military power,

2. consolidation of power in the peripheries and striving for greater control over disputed territories,

3. expansioneconomic impact through the Belt and Road initiative, a

4. establishment of new standards indigital technologiesand promoting cyber sovereignty.

These strategic tools can directly influence the following megatrends, which are often mentioned in the literature:transfereconomic power, emerging markets, new economic order; digitization; globalization; deglobalization, reduction of trade; governance diversity, trust in the political system; and scarce resources.Using data from Google Trends, it shows that in the period 2004-2023, trends in China's grand strategy concepts are most correlated with concepts representing the following three megatrends: digitization, globalization, and resource poverty."

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The author clearly talks about China's grand strategy and how it can affect global megatrends. Therefore, I will present contrasting quotes for SR. I looked at the SR government package, specifically part of itTaxes and levies and investment support

• Addition of institutional PPP to PPP methodology

The aim of the measure is to introduceopportunity to usethe PPP institutional model that haspotentialto make the procurement of public infrastructure more efficient and faster by involving the private sector already in the initial phase. The model can optimize risks, financing and technical solutions. (deadline 31 December 2026).

What it is has potential?Or what does it mean –can?

Linear programming, which is taught at economics faculties, constructs models of linear programmingtax optimization.The reader can verify this by typing the text into the Internetlinear programming model of taxation.

In order for the reader to have a good understanding of what PPP is, I cannot help but mention that the term public-private partnerships (PPP projects) comes from the English term public-private partnership. PPP projects are projects whose goal is to provide public services or public infrastructure and which meet the following conditions:

• the private partner will provide public infrastructure,

• provision of public services instead of a given public sector entity

So, at this point in the package, PPP measures are not really being addressedthe economic problem of the SR economy;economicdevelopmentaenhancementeconomy. What was China dealing with?

Let's see its important economic facts, factors. In the southeast of China, in the province of Guangdong, lies Tung-kuan, one of thethe fastestgrowing cities in the world, which had almost 7 million inhabitants in 2007 (1 million in 1979). Today it is home to 15,000 international companies and one of the main onescenterspreproduction of computer parts. Because China is the world's largest producer and exporter of toys, Tung-kuan (with more than 4,000factories)the main producerof toys in the province, which contributes 70 percent to the total production of this item.. In 2002, withby exporting goodsfor $3 billion worldwide - mostly to the US -, Tungkuan finished third among Chinese cities - just behind Shanghai and Shenzhen.

It does not symbolize any countrydeep economic transformation, which we have been witnessing for 50 years, better than China.. A country that was essentially introverted for centuries has become one ofthe most powerful economic forceson the planet. Nowadays, China is the biggestexporterin the world, and in terms of GDP, it even surpassed Japan, which is second in the world.

Something like this didn't just happen in one city - this story is more or less repeated all over China (we have been troubled by the backwardness of the Michalovce district for 50 years).

It is the same in Brazil, India and Russia. Their power and influence is such thatthis new power, defeating the West with its own weapons, was given the name "rest" of the world in recognition of its position on the global economic stage.

If it was just one single country, the West might be able to tame it. But because it stands beforecombined forcethe rest of the world, is directly forced to accept a great onslaught of challengers from all corners of the globe. And all these countries are growingself-confidence(Slovakia lost it), they adopt itnew and newskills and in the global races of economies are fighting forleading position. Why don't we do it in V4?  In these developing countries, they live a better quality of life and have a higher economic standard.

As the world adjusts, it will always be the case that the West is heading in the wrong direction today.

Let's look at this diagram:

His father is the winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics, prof. S. Kuznets. We can clearly see the "thickness of the pipes", the flows in the economy, where it starts and where it ends, the arrows show it.

The reader should read the texts of the streams. We see the essence of how the economic system works; the reader should note mainly the tributaries tosector governmentand outflows from the government sector. This diagram isgraphic imagehow the economic system works, unfortunately, our economic policy makers probably don't know about it, so they don't solve iteconomicthe problem of the Slovak economy,economic development and improvement of the economy, what China was dealing with,emergenceenterprises, production.

We have to ensurecorrect proportionsbetween the principal economic flows from the diagram, if we want the economy of the SRshe did not stagnate. We see that the thickness of the flowexpenses for personal consumptionis significantly greater than the flowretained earnings(28.5 times), and they have a completely different thicknessgross domestic investment.

I sent it to 3 Prime Ministers. The diagram can be expressedeconometric model. and scientifically determinerequiredproportions and not wait until September for a big package of measures, which will be generated by government economists.

Conclusion

The government's big package of measures, which we have been waiting for quite a long time,it does not solve basic problemseconomic system of the Slovak Republic. The first 38 measures deal only with the "bureaucracy" of our functioning.

In the basic part of the reasoning, I showed how China handled its economic development. No country symbolizes the deepeconomic transformation, which we have been witnessing for 50 years, better than China. It is the same in Brazil, India and Russia.

A package of measuresit is noteconomic term. In fact, the term package in this connection speaks directly of deepknowledge gap. We take the package to the post office. Economists talk aboutsystem econometric measures.