Prof. JEFFREY SACHS -LIVE- original ENG Interview - NATO expansion, europe on fire ?_19.10.2026

[music] are you uh now? Okay. Good morning, Professor Sax. How are you, sir? >> Very good. Nice to be with you. Thank you. >> Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to our little Czechoslovakian channel. And guess what? Today is Monday morning, October the 19th. And guess who's with us today? Welcome back to our channel uh sir professor Sak always pleasure and what a privilege to to have you on on our channel considering your busy schedule. Uh let's not waste any more time. I think ladies and gentlemen this man needs no introduction as a worldwide celebrity not from Hollywood but from New York. Uh and currently I as far as I know you are in Europe together maybe with your wife. uh if you could tell us tell our viewers the first question that comes into my mind would be what is the purpose of your current European trip. >> Well, thank you very much. I'm in Rome today actually at the Vatican today uh to discuss uh in the next couple of days issues of war and peace and what can be done to bring about peace. I uh was at the European Parliament uh in Brussels last week uh and met with the many parliamentarians and spoke to the members of parliament and there's a a video of that available online if people want to see what uh what I spoke about. But basically, I was calling for a European policy based on peace and diplomacy rather than on an escalation of war and uh unaffordable uh and unwise buildup of military means. This current approach of Europe to spend uh hundreds of billions of euros on more weaponry is uh destroying the economy uh and breaking society as we can see in the protests that are ravaging France uh and that are spreading to other countries as well. This was a weekend of lots of unrest. Uh, I'll be visiting uh London uh and Oxford shortly. Uh, and um I will complain, if I could put it that way again, about the British wararm mongering uh because the Brits have been war mongers for centuries actually. They really love their empire even after it's gone. Um, and they still continue to promote war rather than peace. So I will have some words when I'm in Oxford and London. >> Yeah, that that is true that the empire has not has not died yet. It's still alive. >> Not in the mind. >> Yeah. [laughter] Anyway, so uh we have this uh we have this tradition of uh answering our guests which is you Scott Rider and Larry Johnson sometimes Stanislav Piviking from Moscow answering the questions from our viewers. There's you have such a huge fan club around the world including Czech Czech and Slovak Republic. So Czechoslovakia. So first question from uh uh Mrs. Zena. I'd like to ask Mr. Sax to assess the latest European Council summit. Um once again they declared that the EU's support for Ukraine remains unwavering for that and that on the contrary it is time to put pressure on Russia and intensify sanctions even further. It sounds so it's not funny but it's to me it's unbelievable and can they see from their go crystal palaces what's happening in the streets of Western Europe and M Mr. Zalinsky was once again the media star. What else was uh brewing or cooking behind the scene? What was happening behind the scenes in the corridors of power? If you have any information on that? Well, basically Europe is loving Ukraine to death. This is the problem. Uh these [clears throat] so-called supporters of Ukraine are basically using Ukraine uh in a proxy war to fight Russia. It's a misguided war, but they're telling the Ukrainians, go to your deaths uh to fight Russia, to keep Russia away from us. But, you know, Russia has no interest in uh invading Europe. Uh so, sending Ukrainians to their death for this reason is not only extraordinarily cruel and cynical, but utterly fatuous. uh it's based on a completely false premise. Uh the reason for this conflict is actually the opposite which is that the United States and Europe wanted to weaken or divide or to overthrow or dismantle Russia. Uh and so they kept pushing the US military bases. They kept pushing the weapon systems. They kept pushing the NATO interoperability to Ukraine and all the way to the South Caucuses in Georgia. The idea was spelled out very clearly in the 1990s. It was to use Ukraine. Uh Bjinski, one of our leading strategists in the 1990s said that Ukraine was a geopolitical pivot. By that he meant the US could use it to weaken Russia. Uh he called the whole Eurasian continent a grand chessboard. So it was a game. Uh and this is a game played very badly uh and played with the lives of real people. Uh it's a disaster. As to the second part of the question, yes, the European public is absolutely against all of this. People have other things to do with their lives and their incomes than to give it away to arms dealers and to bombing and destruction. And we can see all through Europe that the political leaders who promote the war in Ukraine are profoundly unpopular. Uh reaching new lows. Mcronone [clears throat] has basically no approval whatsoever in France. I think it's basically down to essentially zero. France is, you know, burning this past weekend because of all of this unrest and yet Mcronone is one of the big wararm mongers. Uh and I would say this is the same with Mertz in Germany. Uh and uh when you mention I think it's the 22nd sanction round uh every sanction round is just putting uh the noose that's around Europe's economy pulling it tighter. Uh how much can you pull to break the European economy? Russia has reoriented its economy towards China, towards India, towards Asia. But Europe, what is it doing? It isolated itself from lowcost energy. Uh it's got the highest energy prices in the world. And Donald Trump who it's unbelievable. He got to sell American liqufied natural gas to Europe at six times the cost. And then when he wants cheap energy, well, he just buys it from Russia. And then the Russians, the Europeans complain and say, "No, we'll never do that. We'd rather kill our own economy than to do what our American allies are doing. So European leaders are absolutely obsessed, confused, ruining the European economy and forgetting every dimension of diplomacy and completely forgetting how this whole conflict started, which was Russia's 30-year opposition to the eastward movement of the US military and its missile systems. >> Exactly. Thank you very much professor s because this this last uh few words you mentioned brings us to the very next question regarding this subject from uh Mr. Ariana Zobec I have question uh a couple of two questions combined in one for professor Sak was it foreseeable that NATO's eastward expansion would provoke a strong reaction by Russian Federation and why do you think western politicians continued down this path anyway was it a strategic mistake or a calculated and wellplanned risk before beforehand and the second part would be I'd like to ask uh if [clears throat] if it is possible. The very idea that Ukraine might want to join NATO is unacceptable to Russia and the West more or less understands that that understands that. But I think the West has figured out a way to get around it and make fools of the Russians. The idea is simple. Admit Ukraine into the European Union, which the Russians don't have much of a problem with. But the union is also calling for the creation of the European army like a sort of NATO 2.0 O of which all EU member states would automatically be a part of. As uh as a result, Ukraine would become a part of the military pact and in 10 years for example, we're we'd be right back where we are today. Only in this only the situation would be even worse because the new military structure would adopt NATO's rules including the principle of collective defense under article 5. Well, I think it's a very apt set of observations. Uh, of course, Russia was promised in 1990 that NATO would not move one inch eastward. And this was said repeatedly and it was said in a very specific context. The context was negotiating the reunification of Germany. At the end of World War II, Germany was occupied by four powers uh by the United States, uh Russia, Britain, and France. uh and uh of course uh rather than accept neutrality which is what the Soviet Union proposed for Germany uh the west said no we'll take our three parts form the Federal Republic of Germany and put it into a military alliance uh called NATO and that's how the deep division of Europe started my own view by the way just as a footnote of history is that if the United States had accepted uh neutrality for Germany, the Cold War could have been ended, could have been avoided. It's a kind of shocking thought, heatedly denied by, you know, the hardliners. But think about it. When Austria accepted neutrality in 1955, the Soviet Union went home. That was it. Austria thrived as a neutral country, non-NATO member. And the same was offered for Germany and rejected. So my own view is that this horrible period of Soviet occupation could have ended in 19 sorry the late 1940s or the early 1950s or in 1955 on the same basis as Austria's neutrality but the west rejected it. Okay. In 1990, Germany wanted to be reunified and uh they needed permission of the occupying powers and so they negotiated with President Gorbachev and they said allow Germany to be reunified and we promise NATO will not move eastward. But as soon as that was promised, the West started to break its promise. And especially after the Soviet Union became the 15 successor states and Russia became the continuation state of the Soviet Union, all those promises that still applied to Russia were just broken and Russia objected and it objected vehemently and continuously. So when the NATO countries under the pressure of the United States committed to expand to Ukraine and to Georgia, Chancellor Merkel wrote in her diary, which has been published as her memoirs, she wrote that this would be regarded in Russia as tantamount to a declaration of war. She knew that. They knew that, but they followed the US line very blindly. and every step of the way from the 1990s to 2008 when the commitment to expand NATO was made to the breaking of the Minsk 2 agreement to the breaking of the Istanbul agreement between Ukraine and Russia in the spring of 2022 when Ukraine was going to declare neutrality but the United States and UK said no you must fight on each of these steps has been calculated. Now, the question asks, what did the West intend of all of this? Well, I think it's true to say that the West was playing a game of chicken. Uh meaning we're going to insist that NATO expands and Russia's going to have to back down. So, we're going to prove how resolute cuz Russia will never take us on. And at each step, they were playing chicken. They were showing we're the tough tough ones. we'll never back down. And Russia said, "Sorry, we're not going to back down either." Uh, and so we've had this continuing war. On the observation about uh sneaking in NATO membership in effect uh through the European Union, there are a lot of leading voices in Russia right now saying, "We're not going to let that happen." They're fully aware of the militarization of the European Union. I was in Brussels last week and I said, "What a shame it is, how sad that NATO and the EU Commission and Parliament are in the same city. This has confused everything or deliberately mixed the military and the uh economic side." And the Russians are aware of this. They're just not going to uh stand by when Ukraine becomes a launching pad for what Russia understandably regards as a mortal threat to its security and survival. After all, the West has spoken repeatedly about destroying Russia. no less than the external affairs uh vice president of the commission Kaakalis has talked about ripping Russia into a thousand pieces. Well, when you hear that kind of rousophobia, you don't just sit there and say, "Sure, you're welcome. We're so happy." Uh so this is really the problem and I think the question gets it exactly right. It's really hard to say what they mean by what they say because we all know that especially this lady you just mentioned is must be an actress because her husband has a very big business in Russian Federation including maybe even Khenrat and she's the biggest Russia beater of all the puppets in in EU parliament. So there must be something behind the curtain which we are not even uh they cannot talk about. So, we can only see this play as in theater, but who knows what's going on behind the closed door. [snorts] Anyway, let's get Thank you very much, professor. Excellent answer as always. And there is another question from a viewer from Czech Republic, Aldrich. I'd like to ask about the Trump and Putin agreement, specifically the oil trade that circumvents all the sanctions the West has imposed on Russia. From Russia's perspective, isn't this a mistake from Russia's perspective? And won't the US see it as a sign of weakness? And the second part of the question is what will be the consequences for the United States now that they have reached an agreement with Russian Federation and Vladimir Putin on the diesel fuel and who knows what else. And I'm curious whether Trump, Donald Trump, even realizes that he could derail this deal by launching an attack on Iran or Iran with these thousand kilogram bombs as he mentioned the mother of all bombs, whatever he he just said a few days ago and either before or after the US midterm elections. Does he realize that under the treaty Russia is Iran's ally? and even in the military sphere. What do you think will could happen? >> First, we should understand, I think it's quite clear that uh Donald Trump simply improvises without regard to anything beyond the next 15 minutes. He's making it up as he goes along. This is not grand strategy. This is just improvisation. He believes always make whatever deal you can for your immediate benefit and when the consequences come make a different deal. Uh and so just completely proaricate and uh don't worry about the consequences. So this deal is not really any kind of long-term thinking. uh it's simply uh to try to lower prices a little bit before the US midterm elections. It of course runs completely counter to what Trump said a month ago when he signed legislation giving him expanded powers of sanctions. Uh and interestingly I don't think Trump scores any political points for this at all inside the United States. the effect on diesel prices are minimal because what we're talking about are very small quantities that indeed are dwarfed by events in the Middle East events especially in Iran. So it doesn't have any consequential effect uh but it does look weird. Uh and it was attacked by uh probably dozens of congressmen of Trump's own party in recent days. So he looks inconsistent. Uh he is incapable of explaining anything to the American people other than through a true social post. So we don't really have any uh authority or explanation. Trump's approval rating continues to decline in poll after poll. While the numbers are slightly different, each poll is on a downward trend. uh the one yesterday gave him 33% approval and 66% disapproval. I think it will be under 30% quite soon. Um so don't look for consequentiality or consistency or logic uh beyond a 15minute interval. When it comes to Iran, of course, Trump is also uh he's trapped the world in his incredible [snorts] blunder. He did something incredibly stupid uh attacking Iran, thinking that like Venezuela, he'd be able to cajol the government or choose the next leader the next day. This was unbelievably delusional. And Trump even bragged, "I did what six presidents before me wouldn't do." But of course, all he really meant was that the six presidents before him were smarter than he is and avoided this absolutely idiotic trap that he's put the world into. It looks like there will be renewed war. Uh, I think that's most likely, but I don't think it will be any more successful uh from a US policy point of view than the first months of the war. It will be destructive, but it will be destructive on all sides. Look at Saudi Arabia, how it's uh under really blistering attack by the Houthis after all. now wait for Iran to make a major response. Same with the Israel. If it comes back into this war actively, Iran is going to retaliate in full force. So, I think the terrible mistakes that Trump made in launching this war and in continuing it are actually likely to continue because probably the defining feature of American policy is do something stupid and then double down on the stupidity because you don't want to admit that it was stupid and then continue to double down and improvise on each uh amount of stupidity. Finally, it comes to an end. In Afghanistan, it took 20 years of American stupidity to go from the Taliban to the Taliban. So, 20 wasted years, trillions of dollars, nothing accomplished except death, destruction, and a lost generation. That's America. uh instead of cutting your losses in the first week uh or month uh you continue on perhaps even for years. >> Well, that's uh that that was uh great explanation especially with that Taliban uh going from 1.0 to 2.0 in in just 20 years and trillions of dollars. >> Exactly. Isn't that amazing? The leader of the world. [laughter] >> Yeah. >> Follow us and you'll go around in circles for a whole generation. >> Yeah. And it's I think it's um it's like this uh it's same the history just repeats itself. And I have I know some travelers who've been to for example to Afghanistan like 20 years ago, 10 years ago, 5 years ago and now. And the local people say this Taliban is is the is the worst Taliban they've ever had after Americans left. So they brought worse worse Taliban than there was before. Anyway, let's >> because they because they destabilize societies >> because all of this is tremendously destructive. There's no building in it. [snorts] [gasps] >> I wish I could understand what they really want by going to these countries with their armies. >> What what they want is they want dominance. They want to show that they're bullies. They want to show that they're tough. They're just not very smart. >> It it's like our secretary of war, Hegath. >> [laughter] >> He he he wants to beat his chest and show that he's the alpha male, that he's on top of everything. He's the silverback gorilla, but he's he's maybe that's a good analogy. He's just absolutely without insight. And this is unfortunately what American foreign policy is, which is we're the the meanest, the baddest, the biggest, the toughest. But what does it get you in the end? Uh it gets you uh $40 trillion of debt, uh many failed wars and a lot of lives lost. Yeah, exactly. [snorts] You are exactly correct, sir. Thank you very much for such a detailed answer on this. Another question from uh Mr. Daniel from Slovakia. Mr. sucks. As a globally respected and renowned economist, could you please explain to us how it is possible that uh given Ukraine's non-existent economy nowadays, the Ukrainian currency is worth three times as much, maybe twice as much as the Russian ruble when converted to the US dollar, which I've read about that as well. Thank you for your response. And the second question is, no, it's just this one. So if you have any information on that. >> Well, just to say um the whole Ukrainian economy is being propped up by uh this uh questioner and all his fellow citizens of Europe. Uh without European money going into Ukraine, there would be an utter collapse of the currency and of the economy. And that's likely to come because Europe itself is running out of money and running out of means. Um and so in this sense what we're observing is uh is is the last stages of Ukraine's viability. Of course, what I argue for every day is negotiate a peace, stop the fighting. Ukraine should declare neutrality. NATO should say it's not going to enlarge that that was a it will never say it but it should acknowledge it was a terrible terrible blunder. Uh there should be a an armistice line. They can disagree about what legalities are but they can agree to stop fighting Ukraine's neutrality demilitarization. Uh this I think would be uh absolutely practicable. it could be implemented quickly. Uh but the basis is the west would have to say you know what NATO is not going to enlarge. You know what Ukraine is not going to be part of our military and and security side. You know what Russia has real interests if we did that. Uh Ukraine's still going to be in an economic uh crisis, a very very deep one. But it could start to trade again. It could start to export grain again. It could have a chance for uh 10 or 20 years of rebuilding from the disaster that the United States and Europe led Ukraine into. Um, but as for the currency, without the European backing right now, there would be vastly higher inflation and a plummeting value of the currency. I'm I'm going to have to thank you at this point so I can run over to my meeting at the at the Vatican. I hope we can talk again soon. >> Ah, I forgot to ask you how much time we have. >> We have a half an hour today. >> Half an hour today. No problem. No problem. I still have some couple of questions, but we can continue anytime soon. That would be nice. >> We'll do that for sure. And thank thank all the people who asked the questions. I I really appreciate it. >> Yeah. Thank you very much, sir, for your precious time and uh looking forward to hopefully see you again. Thanks to your kind wife, Sonia, who is responsible for our meeting. have a great day and um we are looking forward to uh to the news from your trip in uh in Europe with the Vatican and the EU. Thank you very much, sir. >> Good. Great to be with you today. Thank you. >> Have a nice day. Say hello to everybody. >> I will >> from Czechoslovakia with love. [laughter] Ladies and gentlemen, so that was uh unfortunately short, but it was an interview with the one and only the worldwide celebrity professor Jeffrey Sak from the University of Colombia in New York. Currently on his uh trip, working trip uh throughout Europe, Italy, Brussels, Vatican as you as you just heard uh EU council even into to Britain he will travel later this month. Thank you very much for your attention. Thank you for your questions. Thank you for your time and we are looking forward to see you anytime soon. Hopefully with uh other guests such as professor hopefully there will be soon a second round continue with our viewers question and questions and what the what he experienced during those events that he is just going to attend. So once again, have a very nice day, have a nice working week, and see you soon in Czechoslovakia. Bye-bye.